Where do you think gaming would be today if Sega were still part of the "big three"?

Even if Sega's Dreamcast had managed to survive, it would have become apparent with the introduction of High Definition that there are too many home consoles competing in the same space. In fact, following the disappointing sales of the GameCube, that's exactly what Nintendo concluded. Sega would have had to find their own niche or bow out.

 

I can't see any possible outcomes where Sega would still be a major platform holder in 2024. While I'm convinced they could have squeezed another year out of the Dreamcast if they really wanted to, you'd need a lot more money and willpower to get a "Dreamcast 2" out of the door.

 

The closest thing we have to Dreamcast-era Sega is Nintendo. And their console is on its way to outsell the PS2! Honestly, I feel the talks of a 2nd crash are wayyyy over-exxagerated. Few people talk about how the Japanese industry is extremely different than the western industry. There, arcades are still relevant, Xbox is a complete joke, Switch games make the most bank, and most topically, the layoff problems are non-existant. If anything, Japanese AAA companies are thriving! A lot of people are citing Japan's labor laws as the reason why, but I feel that there's at least one other factor. You see, in 2022, EA and Bandai-Namco both made around 7 billion dollars. While EA did it with 12900 employees, Bamco did it with 8840. Namco isn't alone, Nintendo has around 7724 employees while SIE has around 12700. I honestly think staff count and staff talent is a factor in the status of today's AAA studios.

 

Capcom just gave everyone raises too.

I don't see the landscape changing much honestly. Any scenario in my head would involve

1) SEGA not completely fucking up the previous generation along with any decisions that lead them to their financial situation
2) Microsoft never entering the race or entrtaining the idea

In this timeline, any advancements Microsoft made with Xbox Live would just be SEGA's through SEGA Net. I think that's the major point where things things swung in our current industry, and it would swing in SEGA's favor, but it would just be foundational work for the real comeback. Next generation would have an expanded SEGA Net. From there, who knows maybe they continue down Microsoft's path, but this is the best case scenario.

I think it's hard to picture a scenario where SEGA remains because their downfall wasn't just because of one single thing. It was a variety of factors. How many high profile heads in the corporate ladder do we have to chop off to make sure they don't eventually fuck up?

 

I've always seen the Xbox as the successor to the Dreamcast, and in a way it was meant to be seeing as Sega wanted Dreamcast backwards compatibility on it. So in my mind if Sega was in the ring they'd have been the company to be associated with Mountain Dew and Doritos, with a focus on brown shooters in the mid 2000's like Sony and especially Microsoft. However come the 2010's and the Xbox One and PS4 era it becomes unclear to me due to the abandonment of personality in tech in favour of clean smooth edges and corporate "friendliness", which is just not Sega in my mind.

 

The most likely scenario for some post-2001 Dreamcast success is that the Xbox flops. And we almost got that - obviously there's Japan, but the Xbox launch in Europe wasn't much better, especially on the continent. I could see the Dreamcast trading as some $100 budget machine - not quite in the same league as the PS2 and GameCube by 2002, but you're paying less for the games, and that might be enough.


and you never know


As I always say, look at late 80s and early 90s home computers. Amiga games came to the ZX Spectrum - different price points, different levels of quality. Lest we forget the original PlayStation was still active throughout 2001 - you don't have to "win" to make money and stay in the game. But there's obviously a reason why that didn't happen.

 

You need to take into account that Microsoft was a complete newcomer that had (and still has) no idea how to attract Japanese audiences. Sega was and still is a Japanese arcade company. The brown shooters that took the western market by storm have always floundered in Japan. I think this alternate-universe Dreamcast 2 would have successors to all the Dreamcast titles we know and love, and would essentially have a library on par with the GameCube.

 

Sega's always been about appealing to American senses, even if through a very skewed Japanese lense. That's why Sonic exists, and series like Daytona and Crazy Taxi are very American. It would not surprise me if they went to bat at the brown shooter genre, especially since only like last year they tried their hand at the live service slop shooters with Hyenas, even if it got cancelled.

 

Was daytona and Crazy Taxi more successful in America? From what I've seen, they're both more "America from a Japanese lens" and are recognizable games in Japan. Hyenas was handled by a western subsidiary for a western audience. I doubt SoJ would just outright abandon their Japanese arcade audience.

 

Never said they'd abandon Japanese arcades. Microsoft never ditched PC software, and Sony didn't ditch making every single piece of tech you could imagine. I just said they would probably follow trends that were popular at the time to maintain their position as an actual competitor.

 

True, but here's this. Sony and Microsoft, the mature console makers, relied heavily on third party support due to the fact that they were both new to gaming during that time, with not a lot of big-name first parties on their hands. Meanwhile, Sega already had a bunch of IPs on their hands. Most of which are more on-par with Nintendo's library of colorful cartoony games. Sega would not give up the blue blur to be more like the Xbox & PS2. Again, I feel Sega would go head to head against the Gamecube.

 

See the problem I think is that you're looking at this solely through the perspective of a Sonic fan. Sega's was the more mature console. They were about the Mega Drive and 32X fucking, having Mortal Kombat with blood*, they were the game company with sports games for your dad, even. For all the Sonic and Monkey Ball, there was Golden Axe and Shenmue And going forward they would've continued to do the same thing, and they did with Yakuza and Bayonetta, hell even licenced IPs like Aliens. Sega's not just blue Nintendo my guy.

 

You have a point, but to me, Sega's more "cool", while the others are more "edgy". Thinking about it, Sega's kind of the in between of Nintendo and PS/XB. An equal amount of family friendly games AND edgy games.

 

What part of the Mega Drive and 32X fucking is not edgy.

 

It is edgy, but I'm trying to say that while did market themselves as the edgy company in western markets, Sega amassed a library that was very diverse.

 

Imagine the Dreamcast selling a bit better, and the GameCube a little worse, both parties needing a comeback, while Sony completely dominates the market and Microsoft enters the fray. Also, mobile gaming becomes a thing.

I'd say Sega has the same idea as Nintendo and reaches for the casual crowd. In what way, though, I don't know. They introduce their equivalent to Nintendo's focus on innovation.

Video game fans witness the birth of a new rivalry, while an old one withers away.

The hype would have been different if Sega diehards got their fix of new hardware. The Wii would have been less successful.

 

A lot of Playstation's notable titles were third party, can't deny that, but Sony's own output wasn't lacking in diversity either. Twisted Metal, Syphon Filter, Ape Escape, Parappa the Rapper, Gran Turismo, Omega Boost, Legend of Dragoon etc. Were they all long running franchises running to this day? Not really, but they were high profile titles from Sony at the time, and their output only got stronger in the following generation. I also don't think you can outright disregard the third party output just because they're third party. A lot of those projects were funded and published by Sony just to make sure they had a constant stream of games. SEGA didn't really have had an edge in terms of diversity of IPs over the new kids competition. Sony came ready to play.

But disregarding all of that, SEGA didn't even bother to utilize a majority of their IPs in our actual reality when they could have leverage them the most. It must be a hell of a utopia if that amassed library was actually utilized when they would be in a better spot.

 

Thinking about the more familty friendly Playsation IPs, they never really reached anywhere near the height and longevity of Mario and now haven't been utilized in a hot minute. Sonic, however, did. He had 3 cartoons, a comic book, a parade balloon. Again, SEGA would NOT cast aside their famous family-friendly mascot.